| 地震灾害人员死亡评估模型对比—以甘肃省中强震为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 亓凤娇,苏鹤军,陈文凯,王紫荆,苏浩然.地震灾害人员死亡评估模型对比—以甘肃省中强震为例[J].华北地震科学,2021,39(1):9-16,22. |
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| 作者姓名： | 亓凤娇 苏鹤军 陈文凯 王紫荆 苏浩然 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局兰州地震研究所,兰州 730000;中国地震局兰州地震研究所,兰州 730000;中国地震局兰州地震研究所,兰州 730000;中国地震局兰州地震研究所,兰州 730000;中国地震局兰州地震研究所,兰州 730000 |
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| 基金项目： | “十三五”国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1500900);中国地震局地震预测研究所基本科研业务费专项(2020IESLZ05)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 梳理了现有3种地震灾害人员死亡评估模型,并基于甘肃地区历史中强地震(MS4.7~6.0),对人员死亡评估模型进行震例计算。结果表明:(1)针对甘肃地区中强地震,3种模型的评估结果与实际结果基本处于同一数量级,可用于地震后快速盲评估计算,为地震后政府和应急管理部门应急指挥决策提供科学依据;(2)当中强地震震中烈度达到Ⅷ度时,这3种评估模型的计算结果与实际人员死亡人数存在较大误差,需要根据专家经验进行人机交互修正,依据地震灾区地理环境、社会经济、人口空间分布等资料进行综合分析支撑应急决策;(3)在甘肃地区中强地震的人员死亡评估中,李雯模型因考虑了地震灾区面积、区域适用性要优于其他两类模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震灾害 人员伤亡评估 甘肃地区 |
Comparison of Evaluation Models of Casualties in Earthquake Disaster--Taking Moderate and Strong Earthquakes in Gansu Province as Examples |
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| QI Fengjiao,SU Hejun,CHEN Wenkai,WANG Zijing,SU Haoran.Comparison of Evaluation Models of Casualties in Earthquake Disaster--Taking Moderate and Strong Earthquakes in Gansu Province as Examples[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,2021,39(1):9-16,22. |
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| Authors: | QI Fengjiao SU Hejun CHEN Wenkai WANG Zijing SU Haoran |
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| Institution: | (Institute of Lanzhou Earthquake Research,China Earthquake Administration,Gansu Lanzhou 730000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Three existing death assessment models of earthquake disaster are combed in this paper,and based on the historical moderate and strong earthquakes(MS4.7~M_S6.0)in Gansu Province,the number of earthquake deaths was calculated by the model.The results show that:(1)the calculation results of the three evaluation models are in the same order of magnitude as the actual death results in moderate and strong earthquakes of Gansu Province,which can be used for the fast blind evaluation calculation after the earthquake and provide scientific basis for the emergency command and decision-making of the government and emergency management departments after the earthquake;(2)when the epicentral intensity of moderate and strong earthquake reachesⅧ,The error between the calculation results of these three evaluation models and the actual death of personnel become larger.It is necessary to revise the human-computer interaction based on experts’e xperience,and make a comprehensive analysis of the data of the geographical environment,social economy and population spatial distribution in the earthquake-stricken areas to support the emergency decision-making;(3)in the assessment of human death caused by moderate and strong earthquakes in Gansu province,Li Wen’s model is superior to the other two models in its regional applicability because it takes into account the area of earthquake-stricken areas. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake disaster casualty assessment Gansu area |
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