| 三峡水库中期水文气象耦合预报应用试验及探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨文发,周新春,段红.三峡水库中期水文气象耦合预报应用试验及探讨[J].水文,2007,27(3):39-42,62. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨文发 周新春 段红 |
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| 作者单位： | 长江水利委员会水文局,湖北,武汉,430010 |
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| 摘 要： | 长江三峡河道因水库建设已成为水库库区,三峡河道原有产汇流规律的改变,造成水情预报有效预见期大幅缩短。随着近年来降雨预报水平逐渐提高,利用定量降水预报增长有效预见期已成为可能。因此,以探讨如何更好开展中期水文气象耦合应用为目的,以三峡入库日平均流量预报为对象,利用中期降雨预报信息,提出一种开展中期水文气象预报耦合试验方案及影响中期耦合预报试验的主要因素及改进方向。试验结果表明该耦合方法的应用是可接受的,具有一定的应用推广价值,可供大中型水库开展中期预报时参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 水文气象 中期预报 耦合预报 三峡水库 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0852（2007）03-0039-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-25 |
Discussion on Medium-Term Hydrometeorological Forecasting in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area |
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| YANG Wen-f,ZHOU Xin-chun,DUAN Hong.Discussion on Medium-Term Hydrometeorological Forecasting in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J].Hydrology,2007,27(3):39-42,62. |
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| Authors: | YANG Wen-f ZHOU Xin-chun DUAN Hong |
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| Institution: | Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China |
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| Abstract: | After construction of the Three Gorges Dam,the runoff yield and flow concentration have been changed significantly,which shortened the effective forecast lead time.Therefore,one effective method to deal with that problem is to put the precipitation data in the hydrological model,and develop the quantitative precipitation forecasting model in real time meteorological forecasting.A forecasting model to predict the daily reservoir inflow with the medium-term meteorological forecasting as the model input was introduced in this paper.The combination of medium-term meteorological forecasting with the hydrological forecasting model to analyze the sensitive elements for the hydrological forecasting was developed for the Three Gorges Reservoir area.With performing of the model,acceptable results have been obtained,which can also be applied to other reservoirs with medium-term meteorological forecasting requirement. |
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| Keywords: | hydrometeorology medium-term forecasting coupling forecasting Three Gorges Reservoir |
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