| 基于RBF的湖南省土地生态安全动态预警 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐美,朱翔,刘春腊.基于RBF的湖南省土地生态安全动态预警[J].地理学报,2012,67(10):1411-1422. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐美 朱翔 刘春腊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,长沙,410081
2. 衡阳师范学院资源环境与旅游管理系,衡阳,421008 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41071067);湖南省2011年研究生科研创新项目(CX2011B190);湖南省重点学科建设项目(2011001)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 基于1996-2010年湖南省土地生态安全的相关数据,从压力、状态、响应3方面构建湖南省土地生态安全预警指标体系,运用RBF模型对2011-2015年湖南省土地生态安全演变趋势进行预测,并结合预警指数和警度标准对1996-2015年湖南省土地生态安全警情状况进行分析,结果表明:①RBF模型有较高的模拟精度,能够较好地拟合2011-2015年湖南省土地生态安全各系统的发展趋势.②就各子系统的安全警度而言,1996-2010年湖南省土地生态安全的压力和状态系统的警度呈波动上升趋势,响应系统的警度呈下降趋势,2011-2015年,压力系统将逐步由“中警”(黄灯)转变为“重警”(橙灯),状态系统将处于“中警”(黄灯)状态,响应系统将处于“无警”(绿灯)状态.③总体而言,1996-2010年,湖南省土地生态安全警度呈略有下降态势,2011-2015年,预警指数将处于0.42左右,警度将处于“中警”(黄灯)状态.④影响湖南省土地生态安全的主要因素包括农业经济比重、建设占用耕地面积量、自然灾害受灾面积比重、人均建设用地面积、第三产业比重、自然保护区面积比重等,是今后调控的重点.
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| 关 键 词： | 土地生态安全 预警 RBF 湖南省 |
Early-warning of Land Ecological Security in Hunan Province Based on RBF |
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| XU Mei
,
ZHU Xiang
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LIU Chunla.Early-warning of Land Ecological Security in Hunan Province Based on RBF[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(10):1411-1422. |
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| Authors: | XU Mei ZHU Xiang LIU Chunla |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China; 2. Department of Resources, Environment and Tourism Management, Hengyang Normal University, Hengyang 421008, Hunan, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the related data of land ecological security of Hunan Province from 1996 to 2010, this paper constructed a land ecological security early-warning index system for Hunan Province from three aspects which were pressure, state and response. And then it used the RBF model to make a prediction for land ecological security development trend of Hunan Province in 2011-2015, and at last made a warning analysis of the land ecological security of the province from 1996 to 2015 according to the early-warning index and warning degree standards. The results are shown as follows. (1) RBF model has a relatively high simulation accuracy, which can well fit the land ecological security system’s development trends of Hunan Province in 2011-2015. (2) In terms of each subsystem’s warning degree, the early-warning index of the pressure system showed an upward trend with fluctuations in 1996-2010, and the warning degree rose from light alarm to moderate alarm, the indicator light turned from blue lamp to yellow lamp gradually; the early-warning index will continue to rise from moderate alarm (yellow lamp) to heavy alarm (orange lamp) with fluctuations in 2011-2015. As for the state system, its early-warning index showed an upward trend with fluctuations in 1996-2010, although it remained in the moderate alarm (yellow lamp) state, alert should be maintained on the situation; in 2011-2015, the signs of serious deterioration will not occur because of the further effects and regulation of the response system, and it will remain at the level of 2008-2010. As for the response system, it showed a downward trend in 1996-2010, from which the state of huge alarm (red lamp) plummeted to no alarm (green lamp); its early-warning index will decline in 2011-2015 which will keep the state of green lamp and be increasingly close to the lower limit of the state of no alarm. (3) Overall, in 1996-2010, the land ecological security warning degree of Hunan Province showed a slight downward trend. In 2011-2015, its early-warning index will be about 0.42, and warning degree will keep in the state of moderate alarm (yellow lamp). (4) The main factors that influence the land ecological security of Hunan Province include the proportion of agricultural economy, the amount of farmland used for construction, the proportion of natural disaster-affected area, per capita area of construction land, the proportion of the tertiary industry, and the proportion of nature reserves. These are the focus of land ecological security regulation in the future. |
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| Keywords: | land ecological security early-warning RBF Hunan Province |
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