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Climate change impacts on fish catch in the world fishing grounds |
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| Authors: | B K Biswas Yu M Svirezhev B K Bala M A Wahab |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Farm Power and Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, 2202, Bangladesh 2. Department of Integrated Systems Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsfach 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany 3. Department of Fisheries Management, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, 2202, Bangladesh |
| Abstract: | Climate change impacts on fish catch in the major fishing areas in the world oceans using a new method for forecasting of fish catch is presented with probability statements. The data on historical behaviour of surface water temperature and fish catches were analyzed and processed to assess the dynamics of spatial temperature distribution and fish catches for the world oceans. An analysis shows that the species diversity of fish catch does not change significantly with time and hence the total fish catch was used as the main dynamic variables, practically without loss of information about the dynamic properties of the system. A predictor was constructed to predict the dynamics of fish catch for new values of four moments for a future temperature distribution and the predictor’s power was estimated with a probability statement. Based on the predicted temperatures for the years 2000–2100, the fish catches in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans have been predicted with a probability statement. |
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