Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory |
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| Authors: | E Zuccolo F Vaccari A Peresan G F Panza |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Geosciences, University of Trieste, via E. Weiss 2, 34127, Trieste, Italy
2. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, ICTP, 34100, Miramare, Trieste, Italy
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| Abstract: | Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA) and the probabilistic approach (PSHA) are compared for the Italian territory. The NDSHA provides values larger than those given by the PSHA in areas where large earthquakes are observed and in areas identified as prone to large earthquakes, but lower values in low-seismicity areas. These differences suggest the adoption of the flexible, robust and physically sound NDSHA approach to overcome the proven shortcomings of PSHA, thus allowing for a reliable seismic hazard estimation, especially for those areas characterized by a prolonged quiescence, i.e. in tectonically active sites where events of only moderate size have occurred in historical times. |
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