| 不同模态下气候变化对智利竹筴鱼补充量的影响 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张畅,李纲,陈新军.不同模态下气候变化对智利竹筴鱼补充量的影响[J].海洋学报,2021,43(9):48-58. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张畅 李纲 陈新军 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306;上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306;青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室 海洋渔业科学与食物产出过程功能实验室,山东 青岛 266237;上海海洋大学 大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室,上海 201306;上海海洋大学 国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海 201306;上海海洋大学 农业农村部大洋渔业开发重点实验室,上海 201306 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划（2019YFD0901404）；上海市科技创新行动计划（19DZ1207500） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 智利竹筴鱼(Trachurus murphyi)是东南太平洋重要的经济鱼类之一，其资源量受补充量影响明显，了解补充量状况对智利竹筴鱼资源可持续利用和科学管理具有重要意义。本文基于模态分析将1971?2017年间智利竹筴鱼补充量划分不同模态，运用贝叶斯模型平均法，分析海表面温度、海表面盐度、海表面高度、厄尔尼诺和太平洋年代际振荡5个环境因子在不同模态中对补充量的解释能力，并探讨模态变动对补充量预测的影响。结果表明，第1模态(1971?1980年)更多的受捕捞因素的干扰；第2模态(1981?1990年)厄尔尼诺对补充量变动的解释概率最高；第3模态(1991?2001年)解释概率最高的环境因子为太平洋年代际振荡；第4模态(2002?2015年)厄尔尼诺为解释概率最高的环境因子。对比不考虑模态变动的分析结果，两者存在明显差异，基于不同模态的分析结果对智利竹筴鱼补充量变动的解释更为合理。研究认为，智利竹筴鱼补充量变动受到多个环境因子的影响，在不同模态时期起主导作用的环境因子也不同，推测年代际太平洋年代际振荡冷暖期交替与厄尔尼诺现象可能是诱发智利竹筴鱼补充量发生模态转变的重要因素。建议在未来智利竹筴鱼资源评估与管理中，应该考虑不同的模态变化及其影响因子。
|
| 关 键 词： | 智利竹筴鱼 贝叶斯模型平均法 模态变动 补充量 东南太平洋 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-01-28 |
Impact of climate change on recruitment of Trachurus murphyi based on different regimes |
| |
| Abstract: | Chilean jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi) is one of the important economic fisheries in the Southeast Pacific Ocean. The stock abundance is inherently affected by recruitment. To find out the status of recruitment is of great significance to the sustainable yield and scientific management of resources. The recruitment of Chilean jack mackerel between 1971 and 2017 is divided into different regimes based on regime test. Then, the Bayesian model averaging is applied to the relationship between recruitment and five environmental factors (sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, sea surface height, El Ni?o and Pacific decadal oscillation), and the impact of regime change in recruitment forecast is also discussed. The results show that the first regime (1971?1980) is more disturbed by fishing; in the second regime (1981?1990), El Ni?o has the highest probability of explaining for the change of recruitment; the environmental factor with the highest explanatory probability is Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the third regime (1991?2001); in the fourth regime (2002?2015), El Ni?o most likely explains the change in recruitment; comparing the analysis of regime shift and no regime shift models, there is a significant difference between the two. However, the results, with different regimes, are more reasonable to explain the change of recruitment. Recruitment abundance is affected by multiple environmental factors, but in different regimes, the dominant environmental factor changes. The regime shifts of recruitment are induced by the alternation of cold and warm periods of interdecadal Pacific decadal oscillation, and El Ni?o. It is suggested that different regime shift and their impact factors should be considered in the future assessment and management of Chilean jack mackerel resources. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《海洋学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《海洋学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
