| 基于贝叶斯状态空间产量模型的大西洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 田志盼,田思泉,戴黎斌,麻秋云.基于贝叶斯状态空间产量模型的大西洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估[J].海洋学报,2021,43(2):67-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 田志盼 田思泉 戴黎斌 麻秋云 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院，上海 201306 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划“蓝色粮仓科技创新”项目(2019YFD0901404);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2019M651475);大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室开放基金(2019301101)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)是全球远洋渔业的重要目标鱼种，要实现有效的管理，对其进行科学的资源评估是必不可少的。本文以大西洋黄鳍金枪鱼为研究对象，根据国际大西洋金枪鱼养护委员会的渔获量和单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据，使用贝叶斯状态空间模型进行资源评估，并探讨不同剩余产量函数和单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据对评估的影响。结果表明，使用美国、委内瑞拉、日本和中国台北4个船队的单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据及Fox剩余产量函数时模型拟合效果最佳。关键参数环境容纳量和内禀增长率的估计中值和95%置信区间分别为178 (140，229)×104 t和0.210(0.159，0.274)；当前资源量为72.5×104 t，最大可持续产量为13.7×104 t时，种群既没有遭受资源型过度捕捞，也没有捕捞型过度捕捞发生。敏感性分析表明，当渔获量数据存在误报率(70%、80%、90%、110%、120%和130%)时，生物量的评估结果偏高，而捕捞死亡率的结果偏低，但种群均处于健康状态；预测分析显示，当总允许可捕量设为11×104 t时，资源在2024年前仍基本保持健康状态。本研究与国际大西洋金枪鱼养护委员会现有的评估结果基本一致，且模型较稳健，可以为管理决策提供建议。根据模型结果，建议总允许可捕量为11×104 t或更低，以使资源达到可持续开发水平。
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| 关 键 词： | 大西洋 黄鳍金枪鱼 资源评估 剩余产量模型 敏感性分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-12-11 |
Stock assessment for Atlantic yellowfin tuna based on Bayesian state-space production model |
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| Tian Zhipan,Tian Siquan,Dai Libin,Ma Qiuyun.Stock assessment for Atlantic yellowfin tuna based on Bayesian state-space production model[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica (in Chinese),2021,43(2):67-77. |
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| Authors: | Tian Zhipan Tian Siquan Dai Libin Ma Qiuyun |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Marine Science, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China2.National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China3.Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China |
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| Abstract: | Yellowfin tuna(Thunnus albacares)is an important fishing target for offshore fisheries worldwide.Stock assessment is essential for its fishery management of sustainable exploitation.According to catch and catch per unit effort(CPUE)data from the International Commission for Conservation of Atlantic Tunas(ICCAT),the Bayesian state space model was conducted to make stock assessment in an open environment(Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment)and to compare the effects of different surplus production forms and CPUE data on the assessment.The results showed that the model performed best with the Fox surplus production form and CPUE data of four fleets(United States,Venezuela,Japan and Chinese Taipei).The median and 95%confidence intervals for carrying capacity,intrinsic growth rate were 178(140,229)×104 t and 0.210(0.159,0.274),respectively.The current stock was not overfished(B/BMSY=1.109)and was not subject to overfishing(F/FMSY=0.893).Sensitivity analysis revealed that when the rates of reported catch divided by the actual catch were 70%,80%,90%,110%,120%,and 130%,the current biomass assessment results were higher with lower fishing rate,but the stock was still in a healthy status.When the total allowable catch(TAC)was set at 11×104 t,the stock would remain basically healthy until 2024.The results from this stock assessment is generally consistent with ICCAT's current stock assessment results,so it is recommended to set a TAC of 11×104 t to keep the stock status healthy and sustainable exploitation of this important fishery. |
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| Keywords: | Atlantic Ocean yellowfin tuna stock assessment surplus production model sensitivity analysis |
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