Factor analysis of trends in energy and metals production and consumption in developed and developing countries |
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| Authors: | Saul B Suslick |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Mineral Resources Policy and Management, Institute of Geosciences State University of Campinas-UNICAMP, P.O. Box 6152, 13083-970 Campinas, (SP), Brazil |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents a methodology used to combine energy and mineral market variables between Less Developed Countries (LDCs)
and Developed Countries (OECD) over the past 24 years (1966–1990). LDCs include all countries, except OECD and central planned
economies (CIS) and other countries in Eastern Europe. This period permits a comprehensive view of the impact of the energy
crisis and the changes in economic growth patterns, correlated with changes in trends of production and consumption of energy
and metals in both country blocs. This complex relationship was evaluated by a factor model of consumption and production
variables using the aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc industries. The following variables are used in the factor model: export
dependence, geographic concentration of mining production, geographic concentration of refined demand, geographic concentration
of refined production, import dependence, refined demand growth, stability of demand, income elasticity of refined demand,
price stability, intensity of use, and intensity of energy. The model for all commodities shows that the factor scores projections
for LDCs and OECD blocs depicted a clearly divergent trend after the two oil shocks (1973–1979), when the intensity of energy
variable presents high loading in the factor. The results are in substantial agreement with findings that the demand for energy,
as well as for metals, is growing more rapidly in LDCs than OECD. |
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| Keywords: | Mineral industry intensity of energy use factor analysis country blocs |
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