| 美国对伊朗石油禁运与全球能源安全 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨宇,王礼茂,江东,陈俊华,崔守军,郝丽莎,王强,王少剑,王长建,刘立涛,胡敏.美国对伊朗石油禁运与全球能源安全[J].地理研究,2018,37(10):1879-1898. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨宇 王礼茂 江东 陈俊华 崔守军 郝丽莎 王强 王少剑 王长建 刘立涛 胡敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 1001012. 中国科学院大学资源环境学院, 北京 1000493. 西南大学地理科学学院,西亚地理研究中心, 重庆 4007154. 中国人民大学国际关系学院, 北京 1008725. 中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院, 北京 1008726. 南京师范大学地理科学学院, 南京 2100237. 福建师范大学地理科学学院, 福州 3501178. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室, 广州 5102759. 广州地理研究所, 广州 51007010. 西北大学城市与环境学院, 西安 710124 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41871118,41401132,41371141）;中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（XDA20040400） |
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| 摘 要： | 2018年6月美国针对伊朗启动了史上最严厉的石油禁运政策,要求所有国家于11月停止从伊朗进口石油,否则相关国家和企业都将面临美国的经济制裁,并无意给予任何国家豁免权。当前,中国、日本、韩国、印度和欧盟等世界重要的石油进口国已经做出回应,除中国明确拒绝美国的单边制裁继续保持与伊朗的石油贸易外,其他主要石油进口国都大量削减从伊朗的石油进口。沙特阿拉伯等石油生产国也承诺通过石油增产来维护全球能源市场的稳定,以支持美国对伊朗的制裁。在经济全球化的大趋势下,美国对伊朗的石油禁运,势必引发全球能源市场的动荡,改变全球石油政治格局以及相关利益方的石油权益。这些方面会涉及到全球油价的波动、不同国家的石油安全与应对政策、世界能源贸易稳定与地缘政治格局的变动等。长期关注能源地缘政治的专家学者围绕美国对伊朗的石油禁运可能产生的影响发表观点,专家们认为美国此举是战略两难的困境,短期内对将会引起世界石油短缺及油价波动,甚至可能导致OPEC减产协议崩溃,改变世界主要进口国的进口规模以及来源结构,但对世界石油市场的长期影响有限。伊朗将寻求打折出售原油、替代港口出口以及多元化出口3条生存路径,目前最大的隐患是伊朗或将封锁霍尔木兹海峡,但是此举目前可能性不大。伊朗石油禁运具有长期性和复杂性,对中国既是机遇也是挑战,中国在“一带一路”倡议下与伊朗保持正常的石油贸易是双赢的选择,但需要谨慎对待由此引发的能源地缘政治的风险,提升能源安全应对的措施。期待各方观点对伊朗石油禁运引发的能源地缘政治格局以及中国的能源安全的解析,能够为相关政策制定者提供理论借鉴。
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| 关 键 词： | 美国 伊朗 石油禁运 能源安全 能源地缘政治 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-06-30 |
U.S. sanctions policy on Iran's oil export and its influence on global energy security |
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| Yu YANG,Limao WANG,Dong JIANG,Junhua CHEN,Shoujun CUI,Lisha HAO,Qiang WANG,Shaojian WANG,Changjian WANG,Litao LIU,Min HU.U.S. sanctions policy on Iran's oil export and its influence on global energy security[J].Geographical Research,2018,37(10):1879-1898. |
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| Authors: | Yu YANG Limao WANG Dong JIANG Junhua CHEN Shoujun CUI Lisha HAO Qiang WANG Shaojian WANG Changjian WANG Litao LIU Min HU |
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| Abstract: | The United States started the toughest oil embargo against Iran, and pushed its allies to cut oil imports from Iran in June 2018. What's more, the United States required all countries including the oil producer and consumer to support this unilateral sanction, or else, all the relevant countries and enterprises will face the economic sanctions with no grant of any immunity. In July, the leading oil importers such as China, Japan, South Korea, India and the European Union responded to this requirement. China rejected unilateral U.S. sanctions and maintained normal trade relations with Iran with regard to crude oil, while other countries cut their oil import from Iran sharply. Oil producers such as Saudi Arabia have also pledged to maintain stability in global energy markets through increasing oil production to supporting U.S. sanctions against Iran. In the trend of economic globalization and interconnectivity energy flows, oil embargo is bound to trigger a bureau of energy markets around the world, which will change the geopolitical pattern of oil trade and decrease oil interests of stakeholders. The key points include fluctuations in global oil prices, energy security and specific measures taken by countries to address these issues, as well as the world's energy trade and stability, energy geopolitics and its pattern. We invite experts and scholars who are professional in energy geopolitics to express their views on the possible impact of the oil embargo imposed by the United States against Iran. Experts believe the oil sanction is a strategic dilemma, and will severely impact regional geographical environment security. It will cause the world oil shortage and oil price fluctuations in the short term, but the long-term effect on the world oil market is limited. It may also lead to collapse of OPEC's agreement and change the amount and structure of global oil import. Iran will seek to discount the sale of crude oil, alternative port exports and diversified export routes to counteract the influence of the sanction. The maximum risk is that Iran may block the strait of Hormuz, but this is unlikely to happen under the current circumstances. It is both an opportunity and a challenge for China. China's normal oil trade with Iran under the "Belt and Road Initiative" is a win-win choice. It is expected that the analysis of the geopolitical pattern of energy and energy security caused by the Iranian oil embargo can provide theoretical reference for relevant policymakers. |
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| Keywords: | the United States Iran oil sanctions energy security energy geopolitics |
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