| “一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络空间结构与邻近性 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨文龙,杜德斌,马亚华,焦美琪.“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络空间结构与邻近性[J].地理研究,2018,37(11):2218-2235. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨文龙 杜德斌 马亚华 焦美琪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海 2000622. 华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院,上海 2000623. 上海师范大学商学院,上海 200235 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41471108）;国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目（201706140096） |
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| 摘 要： | “一带一路”倡议致力于构建全方位、多层次、复合型的互联互通网络,沿线国家之间相互贸易形成的网络有利于加速经济要素跨区域的自由流动,进一步提升“一带一路”区域经济资源的整合效率,对重塑欧亚大陆政经版图和优化中国地缘环境具有重大影响。采用复杂网络和地统计方法,借助GIS、Pajek、Ucinet和数据库等技术手段,对“一带一路”贸易网络的拓扑性质、空间结构以及节点的邻近性深入研究。主要结论有：① “一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络具有小世界和无标度性质,遵循增长性和择优选择;② 沿线国家贸易具有典型的“核心—边缘”等级性,中国对沿线国家产业升级和经济发展具有引领和带动作用;③ 贸易网络是“混合型”结构,呈现枢纽辐射式为主、全连通式并存的联系模式,不同中心性空间分布差异显著;④ 拓展引力模型对“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络具有较强的解释力,贸易关系存在大国效应和地理邻近效应,科研邻近和语言邻近是重要的推动力,制度邻近的影响呈显著负相关,文化邻近的正向作用相对较弱。因此,中国宜遵循“由近及远”的原则,重点强化对邻近国家的贸易渗透,再加强对沿线重点国家的贸易辐射,进而向重点国家的周边地区拓展,从不同空间层次制定差异化政策,发挥科研和语言邻近的推动作用,强化对沿线国家的文化渗透。
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| 关 键 词： | 贸易网络 拓扑结构 邻近性 二次指派程序 “一带一路” |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-04-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-08-30 |
Network structure and proximity of the trade network in the Belt and Road region |
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| Wenlong YANG,Debin DU,Yahua MA,Meiqi JIAO.Network structure and proximity of the trade network in the Belt and Road region[J].Geographical Research,2018,37(11):2218-2235. |
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| Authors: | Wenlong YANG Debin DU Yahua MA Meiqi JIAO |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China2. Institute for Global Innovation & Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China;3. School of Business, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200235, China |
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| Abstract: | The Belt and Road Initiative (B&R) is aimed at building a multi-faceted, multi-dimensional, and a compositely interconnected network. The B&R orderly accelerates the free flow of economic factors across the area and further increases the integrated efficiency of regional economic resources in the B&R region, which has significant influence on reshaping the political and economic landscape of Eurasia and optimizing the geopolitical environment around China. Based on the complex network theory and the geostatistical analysis, this research focuses on the topological features and the spatial structure of the B&R trade network and the proximity of its nodes, by building a database and applying the related techniques, such as ArcGIS, Pajek, and Stata. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The trade network in the B&R region is a small world and scale-free network. It keeps growing and follows the optimum selection rules, which means the new nodes preferably connect with the existing nodes of higher degree in the network. (2) Countries in the B&R trade network display the typical core-periphery hierarchical character. China plays a leading role in promoting industrial upgrading and economic development for these countries. (3) The structure of the B&R trade network shows a "mixed" structure, including both the hub-spoke and the fully-connected modes. The spatial heterogeneity among different kinds of centralities is significant. (4) The extended gravity model can better explain the B&R trade network. There exist the "Powers' Effect" and the "Geographical Proximity Effect" in the trade relationship. In the B&R trade network, scientific and language proximity are the most important forces. Institutional proximity shows a significantly negative effect, while cultural proximity shows a relatively weak effect. As a result, China should develop diverse policies that are based on different spatial levels, enhance the trade with the neighbouring countries first, and then to the distant ones and their surrounding areas; leverage the advantage of scientific and language proximity to promote the trade with other countries, and strengthen the cultural infiltration along the B&R region. |
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| Keywords: | trade network topological structure proximity quadratic assignment procedure the Belt and Road Initiative (B&R) |
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