The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance |
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| Institution: | 1. Norwegian University of Science and Technology Aalesund, Aalesund 6025, Norway;2. Department of Physics and Technology UiT The Arctic, University of Norway, Tromsø 9037, Norway;1. College of Physics/Department of Physics and Astronomy & NAOC-GZU-Sponsored Center for Astronomy Research, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, P.R. China;2. Key Laboratory for the Structure and Evolution of Celestial Objects, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011, P.R. China;3. Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Butler University, Indianapolis, IN 46208, USA;1. Harish-Chandra research Institute, Chhatnag Road, Jhunsi, Allahabad-211019, India;2. Current affiliation: Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Centre, Bartycka 18, 00-716, Warsaw, Poland;3. Institute of Theoretical and Computational Physics, Department of Physics, University of Crete, 700 13 Heraklion, Greece;4. Current affiliation : Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA), Pune University Campus, Pune - 411 007, India;1. National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing, 100081, China;2. Lab for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China |
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| Abstract: | Total solar irradiance (TSI) is the primary quantity of energy that is provided to the Earth. The properties of the TSI variability are critical for understanding the cause of the irradiation variability and its expected influence on climate variations. A deterministic property of TSI variability can provide information about future irradiation variability and expected long-term climate variation, whereas a non-deterministic variability can only explain the past.This study of solar variability is based on an analysis of two TSI data series, one since 1700 A.D. and one since 1000 A.D.; a sunspot data series since 1610 A.D.; and a solar orbit data series from 1000 A.D. The study is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis. First, the TSI data series are transformed into a wavelet spectrum. Then, the wavelet spectrum is transformed into an autocorrelation spectrum to identify stationary, subharmonic and coincidence periods in the TSI variability.The results indicate that the TSI and sunspot data series have periodic cycles that are correlated with the oscillations of the solar position relative to the barycenter of the solar system, which is controlled by gravity force variations from the large planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. A possible explanation for solar activity variations is forced oscillations between the large planets and the solar dynamo.We find that a stationary component of the solar variability is controlled by the 12-year Jupiter period and the 84-year Uranus period with subharmonics. For TSI and sunspot variations, we find stationary periods related to the 84-year Uranus period. Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern maximum period from 1940 to 2015. The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot minimum from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065. |
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