Predicting maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24 |
| |
| Authors: | Nipa J Bhatt Rajmal Jain Malini Aggarwal |
| |
| Institution: | (1) C. U. Shah Science College, Ashram Road, Ahmedabad, 380 014, India;(2) Physical Research Laboratory, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad, 380 009, India |
| |
| Abstract: | A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting
the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual
mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be
less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the
descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8. |
| |
| Keywords: | Sunspot number precursor prediction technique geomagnetic activity index aa |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
