| 利用T213和ECMWF数值预报产品作暴雨落区概率预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨晓琳,文强.利用T213和ECMWF数值预报产品作暴雨落区概率预报[J].广西气象,2007,28(2):19-22. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨晓琳 文强 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南省益阳市气象局,湖南益阳413000 |
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| 摘 要： | 充分利用T213和ECMWF数值预报产品的优势，对相关预报场进行定量集成。根据历史统计和产生暴雨的几个必要条件，选取相关因子进行判别，并按权重进行叠加，得出未来24h暴雨落区概率预报图，在业务应用取得了满意的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 数值预报产品 集成 暴雨落区 概率预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-8411（2007）02-0019-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-04-17 |
Application of T213 and ECMWF NWP in Probability Forecast of the Heavy Rainfall Region |
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| YANG Xiao-lin, WEN Qiang.Application of T213 and ECMWF NWP in Probability Forecast of the Heavy Rainfall Region[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2007,28(2):19-22. |
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| Authors: | YANG Xiao-lin WEN Qiang |
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| Abstract: | A method of forecasting the probability of heavy rainfall region is put forward. By fully utilizing the T213 products and the NWP of ECMWF, based on the statistical history data and the necessary conditions of the heavy rainfall, some factors are selected. And by means of quantitative consensus of the forecast field after discriminate analysis and superimposed by the weighing, the forecast indexes and synoptic patterns and the 24-hour heavy rain region probability forecast map are put forward. The operational forecasts show that the forecast method is feasible and successful. |
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| Keywords: | quantitative synthesis integration heavy rainfall region probability forecast |
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