Bootstrapping: A Fast Way to Simulate QTz Curves |
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| Authors: | A Berckmans and M Armstrong |
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| Institution: | (1) Mineral Resources Consultant, PB 47, Noordlaan 146b3, 9200 Dendermonde, Belgium;(2) Centre of Geostatistique, 35 rue St Honore, 77305 Fontainebleau, France |
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| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to present a fast method based on bootstrapping, for simulating recoverable reserves for input to financial Monte Carlo simulations. In mining, the three parameters defining recoverable reserves are the cutoff grade, z, the ore tonnage above cutoff, T, and the metal quantity above cutoff, Q. After introducing the concept of 3-dimensional QTz curves, the statistical technique called bootstrapping is reviewed and applied to a set of South African gold grades. As selective mining is carried out on blocks not points, these curves have to be calculated for blocks. The QTz curves obtained by bootstrapping are compared to those obtained by conditionally simulating the same deposit. The procedure has been extended to incorporate geologists' ideas of the likely size of the ore volume. Lastly, the recoverable reserves obtained by bootstrapping are compared with those obtained by traditional risk analysis (base case ± 10% or 20%). |
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| Keywords: | recoverable reserves conditional simulations Monte Carlo simulations risk assessment gold |
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