Dam break threshold value and risk probability assessment for an earth dam |
| |
| Authors: | Denghua Zhong Yuefeng Sun Mingchao Li |
| |
| Institution: | (1) School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China;(2) School of Management, Tianjin Polytechnic University, Tianjin, 300387, China |
| |
| Abstract: | In dam safety assessment, it is customary to focus on stability analysis, and the safety factor is regarded as an assessment
index that cannot correctly reflect the effect of multi-factors and variable uncertainty. The factors that induce dam breaks
are complex and uncertain; however, three primary ones can be identified: hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability.
In this paper, the risk probability and the dam break threshold value for each factor individually, as well as coupled factors,
are studied. The threshold value is acquired using the relationship formula between risk probability and dam type. The Dongwushi
reservoir located in the Hebei province of China is taken as a case study. The results show that the dam break threshold values
for hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability are 2.53, 2.02 and 2.69, respectively. The integrated dam break
threshold value for the coupled factors is 1.25, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress according to the established
risk assessment standard. The safety factor is calculated as 1.15 using the Bishop method, which indicates that the dam is
under serious stress. The results obtained by the proposed method are consistent with those of the Bishop method. Finally,
the proposed theory and method are introduced into a dam safety evaluation system (DSES) for convenient and efficient dam
safety management. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
