Probabilistic interpretation of forecasts of ice phase onset dates in Ob-Taz mouth area |
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| Authors: | V G Dmitriev E V Shevnina |
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| Institution: | (1) Public Institution Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397, Russia |
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| Abstract: | The results of a posteriori probabilistic interpretation of forecasts of freezing and ice breaking dates in Ob-Taz mouth area are presented. The method of interpretation is based on the use of conditional distributions of errors in forecasting continuous variables. Parameter estimates of the distribution density of actual dates are given for forecasts grouped in periods. This creates sufficient conditions for the application of methods of continuous statistical optimization in planning measures the efficiency of which depends on dates of freezing and ice breaking in the mouth area. |
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