Wavelet analysis and nonparametric test for climate change in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang during 1959–2006 |
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| Authors: | Jianhua Xu Yaning Chen Weihong Li Minhe Ji Shan Dong Yulian Hong |
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| Institution: | [1]The Research Center for East-West Cooperation in China, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China [2]Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200062, China [3]Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China |
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| Abstract: | Using wavelet analysis, regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test, this paper analyzed time-series (1959–2006) weather
data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang
Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Major findings are as follows: 1) In the 48-year study period, average annual temperature,
annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends. 2) At the 16-year time scale, all
three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter. At the 8-year time
scale, an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three
indices. Incidentally, they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards.
The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases. 3) Average annual
relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual
precipitation at each time scale, which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001.
4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend, as represented by the rising
average annual temperature, was remarkable, but the climate wetting trend, as indicated by the rising annual precipitation
and average annual relative humidity, was not obvious. |
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| Keywords: | climate change nonlinear trend wavelet analysis Mann-Kendall test Tarim River Basin |
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