| 甘肃省未来十年破坏性地震预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 田植甲,张勇利,马文静,李海华,王春花,王庭选.甘肃省未来十年破坏性地震预测[J].高原地震,1998(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 田植甲 张勇利 马文静 李海华 王春花 王庭选 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局兰州地震研究所!兰州，730000(田植甲，张勇利，王春花，王庭选)，青海省地震局!西宁，810001(马文静)，海南省地震局!海口，570003(李海华) |
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| 摘 要： | 中强以上地震在时空分布上具有明显的网络性和层次性。本项研究表明：甘肃及邻区发生的中强以上地震（1955—1987）有88％分布在网络的结点及其附近；在此基础上，考虑地震活动总趋势判定结果、近期小震活动特征、大震减震效应诸因素，用模式识别方法判定出了该区强震的危险地点，并给出了各危险区未来十年的发震概率。
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| 关 键 词： | 网络 层次 结点 模式识别 发震概率 |
FORECASTING THE DESTRUCTIVE EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU PROVINCE IN THE FUTURE TEN YEARS |
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| Tian Zhijia, Zhang Yongli, Ma Wenjin, Li Haihua, Wang Chunhua, Wang Tingxuan.FORECASTING THE DESTRUCTIVE EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU PROVINCE IN THE FUTURE TEN YEARS[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,1998(1). |
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| Authors: | Tian Zhijia Zhang Yongli Ma Wenjin Li Haihua Wang Chunhua Wang Tingxuan |
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| Abstract: | Medium-strong earthquake distribution in space and time is characterized by network and layer. The results show: 88% medium-strong earthquakes (1955-1987) occurred in and near the nodes of network in Gansu province and its adjacent area; on this basis, considering the seismicity tendency determination, small-size earthquakes, shock absorption effect and other factors, the authors determine the strong earthquake risk regions and the probabitity of earthquake occurrence in each risk region in the future ten years by using pattern recognition method. |
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| Keywords: | Network Layer Node Pattern recoghition Probability of earthquak occurrence |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
