| 短期威胁小行星 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱进,杨志涛,甘庆波,赵海斌,霍卓玺.短期威胁小行星[J].天文学报,2021,62(5):57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱进 杨志涛 甘庆波 赵海斌 霍卓玺 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京天文馆 北京 100044;中国科学院国家天文台 北京 100101;国家航天局空间碎片监测与应用中心 北京 100101;中国科学院行星科学重点实验室 南京 210023;中国空间技术研究院钱学森空间技术实验室 北京 100094;中国科学院大学天文与空间科学学院 北京 100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(12073045)、中国科学院青年创新促进会(2018183)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 为更明确近地小行星撞击地球威胁的监测预警需求, 提出了"短期威胁小行星"的概念, 即未来100yr内可能对地球造成撞击威胁且等效直径大于10m的近地小行星. 以目前已发现的756颗短期威胁小行星为基础, 分析短期威胁小行星的轨道分布特点, 研究显示其与一般近地小行星的轨道分布存在差异, 短期威胁小行星的轨道半长轴更集中于1au, 轨道面更集中于黄道面. 基于近地小行星的数量模型, 初步建立了短期威胁小行星的数量估计模型, 并预估了未来100yr内存在撞击可能的短期威胁小行星的总体数量. 短期威胁小行星的特定研究对制定近地小行星搜巡监测策略有重要意义.
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| 关 键 词： | 近地小行星 短期威胁: 小行星 撞击: 概率 等效: 直径 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/2/22 0:00:00 |
Short-term Hazardous Asteroid |
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| ZHU Jin,YANG Zhi-tao,GAN Qing-bo,ZHAO Hai-bin,JIANG Xiao-jun.Short-term Hazardous Asteroid[J].Acta Astronomica Sinica,2021,62(5):57. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Jin YANG Zhi-tao GAN Qing-bo ZHAO Hai-bin JIANG Xiao-jun |
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| Institution: | Beijing Planetarium, Beijing 100044;National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101;Space Debris Observation and Data Application Center, China National Space Administration, Beijing 100101;Key Laboratory of Planetary Sciences, Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210023; National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101;School of Astronomy and Space Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 |
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| Abstract: | In order to clarify the early warning and response requirements of near-Earth asteroids impact, the concept of "short-term hazardous asteroids'' is proposed, that is, near-Earth asteroids with an equivalent diameter greater than 10 meters that may pose a threat to the Earth in the next 100 years. Based on the 756 short-term hazardous asteroids that have been discovered so far, the orbital distribution characteristics of short-term hazardous asteroids are analyzed, and the study shows that their orbital distribution differs from that of general near-Earth asteroids: the semi-major axis of the short-term hazardous asteroids is more concentrated in 1 au, and the orbital plane is more concentrated in the ecliptic plane. On the basis of the quantity model of near-Earth asteroids, a preliminary estimation model for the quantity of short-term hazardous asteroids is established, and the population of short-term hazardous asteroids with potential threat in the next 100 years is predicted. Some specific research on short-term hazardous asteroids is of great significance to the development of near-Earth asteroid search and monitoring strategies. |
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| Keywords: | near-Earth asteroid short-term hazardous: asteroid impact: probability equivalent: diameter |
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