| Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | Akio KITOH Masahiro HOSAKA Yukimasa ADACHI Kenji KAMIGUCHI |
| |
| 作者单位： | MeteorologicalResearchInstitute,Tsukuba,305-0052,Japan |
| |
| 摘 要： | Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21st century and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-member ensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a few percent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the rest of the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. South China is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, which may be related with an E1 Nin^-o-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease in summer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipitation contrast more in the future.
|
| 关 键 词： | 东亚地区 全球变暖 气候学 年际变化 |
Future projections of precipitation characteristics in East Asia simulated by the MRI CGCM2 |
| |
| Akio KITOH,Masahiro HOSAKA,Yukimasa ADACHI,Kenji KAMIGUCHI.Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2005,22(4):467-478. |
| |
| Authors: | Akio Kitoh Masahiro Hosaka Yukimasa Adachi Kenji Kamiguchi |
| |
| Institution: | Meteorological Research Institute,Tsukuba,305-0052,Japan,Meteorological Research Institute,Tsukuba,305-0052,Japan,Meteorological Research Institute,Tsukuba,305-0052,Japan,Meteorological Research Institute,Tsukuba,305-0052,Japan |
| |
| Abstract: | Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21st century and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-member ensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a few percent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the rest of the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. South China is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone,which may be related with an El Ni(n)o-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease in summer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipit ation contrast more in the future. |
| |
| Keywords: | global warming precipitation GCM East Asia |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学进展》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
