| 影响上海市及邻近区域台风的灰色预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 沈明球,房建孟,高爱仙.影响上海市及邻近区域台风的灰色预测[J].台湾海峡,1999,18(3):235-238. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 沈明球 房建孟 高爱仙 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 国家海洋局东海分局,上海,200120 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文利用台风年鉴１９８１￣１９９６年的资料，根据灰色灾变预测方法，建立了对上海市及其邻近区域产生严重影响的强台风出现时间的ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型，经过检验，精度达到优级，据此预测，下次人侵袭本地区的强台风出现时间为２００１年，同时，用灰色拓扑方法对未来几年上海市江苏、浙江沿海区域产生８级以上大风天气的台风个 数进行了逐年预测。
|
| 关 键 词： | 台风 灰色预测 上海 热带风景 |
A gray prediction model for Typhoon Impacting on Shanghai and Its Neighboring Region |
| |
| Shen Mingqiu, Fang Jianmen, Gao Aixian.A gray prediction model for Typhoon Impacting on Shanghai and Its Neighboring Region[J].Journal of Oceanography In Taiwan Strait,1999,18(3):235-238. |
| |
| Authors: | Shen Mingqiu Fang Jianmen Gao Aixian |
| |
| Abstract: | Bsed on the data from the Typhoon Almanac in the period of 1981 to 1996 and gray predictive theory, this paper suggests a GM(1,1)prediction model to be applied om the occurring time of the typhoon which seriously affected Shanghai and its neighboring region. The model. which approved successfully, predicts that the next violent typhoon intruding Shanghai will be on the year of 2001. We also predict the occurrence of strong wind over eight degree (tropical storm)that will affect Shanghai and neighboring region in the future years. |
| |
| Keywords: | Typhoon gray predictive theory Shanghai |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
