A seasonal Markov chain model for the weather in the central Alps |
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| Authors: | PAUL JORDAN PETER TALKNER |
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| Institution: | Universitätsrechenzentrum, Universität Basel, Klingelbergstr. 70, CH 4056 Basel, Switzerland;;General Energy Research, Paul Scherrer Institut, CH 5232 Villigen, Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | The dynamics of daily weather types according to Schüepp's classification in the Alpine region is investigated by means of seasonal Markov chain models. A logit model is employed for the transition probabilities of the Markov chain. The parameters follow from a maximum likelihood estimation. A 1st‐ and a 2nd‐order Markov chain model are compared and found to yield very similar results. Model predictions are compared with counted frequencies of seasonally‐averaged joint probabilities for the occurrence of weather types at subsequent days, monthly‐averaged probabilities of a change of the weather type from one to the next day, and daily averages of the probabilities of occurrence of the different weather types. All these predictions coincide with the observations within the statistical limits. The only large deviations occur in the tails of the lengths distributions of uninterrupted episodes of the two most frequent weather types. |
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