| 滇西地震预报实验场及邻区短临预报量化跟踪决策方案 |
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| 引用本文： | 金明培,黄绍裘,郭咸华,杨芬,赵家本.滇西地震预报实验场及邻区短临预报量化跟踪决策方案[J].地震研究,2001,24(4):315-320. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金明培 黄绍裘 郭咸华 杨芬 赵家本 |
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| 作者单位： | 滇西地震预报实验场, |
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| 基金项目： | 云南省地震局青年地震科学基金 ( 99-10 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 借鉴了数学上降元法解多元方程的思路，分步进行地震三要素的短临预报尝试。首先确定了个较大尺度的研究区域，确定所预报震级下限，用多条短临预报指标和自适应加权综合集成概率模式预报时间；又在有时间预报的前提下，利用地震活动性图象确定最危险的具体地点；要根据前兆异常幅度和持续时间、异常数量以及宏观异常情况估计可能的震级范围，从而初步实现地震的三要素短临预报。该方法具有较好的可操作性。
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| 关 键 词： | 短临预报 决策方案 云南 地震预报 地震活动性 前兆异常 震级 |
A Quantitatively Tracing Decision-Making Scenario for Short-impending Prediction in West Yunnan Earthquake Test Site and Nearby |
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| Jin Mingpei,Huang Shaoqiu,Guo Xianhua,Yang Fen,Zhao Jiaben.A Quantitatively Tracing Decision-Making Scenario for Short-impending Prediction in West Yunnan Earthquake Test Site and Nearby[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2001,24(4):315-320. |
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| Authors: | Jin Mingpei Huang Shaoqiu Guo Xianhua Yang Fen Zhao Jiaben |
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| Abstract: | Using a mathematical method of solving multi-equation for reference and trying to perform short-impending of three seismic factors. Namely, first a fairly large sized studying area is determined and then a low limit of predicted magnitude. The multi short-impending prediction indexes and probability mode of comprehensive integration of self-adaptation weight is used to predict the time. Under the precondition of having time prediction, a seismicity pattern is used to determine the most risk location. Then based on the precursory anomalous amplitude, duration time, anomalous quantity and macro anomalies, a possible magnitude is estimated. The three factors of short-impending prediction are primarily realized. This method has a fairly good operability. |
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| Keywords: | short-impending prediction decision-making scenario west Yunnan earthquake test site and nearby |
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