| 特大自然灾害预测研究的科学方法论 |
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| 引用本文： | 任振球.特大自然灾害预测研究的科学方法论[J].地球信息科学,2000,2(2):1-5. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任振球 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院,北京, 100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文讨论了特大自然灾害预测研究中的若干科学方法论问题。指出: 首要关键在于开放系统; 必须开展全方位的整体研究,从中抓住关键因子进行深入研究; 内外因耦合是引起突发性特大自然灾害的主要缘由; 在科学观念上需由过去注重线性、均匀、连续、平均与距平、平滑和数量分析,转变为侧重非线性、非均匀、不连续、奇异、高频脉冲、结构等信息的提取和分析, 以及形与数的统一; 宇宙中还可能存在一种最大最广泛的整体联系。最后,简要讨论了涉及的几个哲学问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 科学方法论 复杂系统 非线性 特大自然灾害 预测研究 |
Methodology for Prediction of Large Natural Disasters |
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| Ren Zhengqiu.Methodology for Prediction of Large Natural Disasters[J].Geo-information Science,2000,2(2):1-5. |
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| Authors: | Ren Zhengqiu |
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| Institution: | China Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing,100081 |
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| Abstract: | This paper discussed the scientific methodology problems in predicting the large and sudden natural disasters The author pointed out that we should consider the system as an open system, and conduct systematic research and seeks for key factor and make deep study Coupling of internal and external factors is the only way to bring up the large and sudden natural disasters As to the scientific concepts we need to change our mathematic analysis from the past one which is close to linearity, homogeneity, continuous, average or departure, smooth and quantity, into nonlinear, nonhomogencity, discontinuous, queerness, high frequency pulse, the structure etc and the unification of the tangibility and the quantity There exists a greatest and most extensive entire connection in the Universe In the final paragraph, we briefly discussed some philosophic problems |
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| Keywords: | Large and sudden natural disaster Prediction study Scientific methodology |
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