A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment |
| |
| Authors: | Anita Grezio Warner Marzocchi Laura Sandri Paolo Gasparini |
| |
| Institution: | (1) AMRA Scarl, Via Nuova Agnano 12, 80012 Naples, Italy;(2) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Creti 12, 40128 Bologna, Italy;(3) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy;(4) Department of Physical Sciences, University of Naples, “Federico II”, Naples, Italy |
| |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a Bayesian procedure is implemented for the Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The approach is general
and modular incorporating all significant information relevant for the hazard assessment, such as theoretical and empirical
background, analytical or numerical models, instrumental and historical data. The procedure provides the posterior probability distribution that integrates the prior probability distribution based on the physical knowledge of the process
and the likelihood based on the historical data. Also, the method deals with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties incorporating
in a formal way all sources of relevant uncertainty, from the tsunami generation process to the wave propagation and impact
on the coasts. The modular structure of the procedure is flexible and easy to modify and/or update as long as new models and/or
information are available. Finally, the procedure is applied to an hypothetical region, Neverland, to clarify the PTHA evaluation in a realistic case. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
