| 基于回归模型的青藏铁路水害气象风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 张静,保广裕,周丹,马守存,刘玮.基于回归模型的青藏铁路水害气象风险评估[J].新疆气象,2018,12(1):53-60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张静 保广裕 周丹 马守存 刘玮 |
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| 作者单位： | 青海省气象服务中心,青海省气象服务中心,青海省气象服务中心,青海省气象服务中心,青海省气象服务中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用逻辑回归和逐步回归方法对青藏铁路青海段由降水引发铁路水害气象风险评估进行研究,以青藏铁路公司提供的铁路沿线水害统计资料为依据,选取2000—2014年青藏铁路沿线青海境内14个气象站点和28个加密气象站降水资料,开展降水引发的水害气象风险评估,结果表明:青藏铁路水害的发生不仅与降水量级有关,还与降水的性质和持续时间有关,铁路水害主要集中在7—8月,高发路段是乐都-平安、湟源-海晏段。导致青藏铁路沿线水害的主要降水类型为区域性强降水和连阴雨。考虑到降水持续时间对水害的影响,通过计算得出的铁路水害诱发指数和水害有效降水因子,且距水害发生时间愈近,日降水量对水害发生的作用就愈大。采用逻辑回归模型判断青藏铁路青海境内各区段水害的发生有无,其预测模型总判对率均超过86.2%,其次运用逐步回归评估模型计算出水害预报等级,经检验对最高级别1级的预报准确率达88.9%。可见,逻辑回归模型和逐步回归评估模型在青藏铁路青海境内铁路水害预报和评估工作中具有较高的预报准确率。
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| 关 键 词： | 青藏铁路 铁路水害 风险评估 模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/6/30 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/9/16 0:00:00 |
Meteorological risk assessment of Qinghai Tibet Railway Water Disaster Based on regression model |
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| Zhang Jing,Bao Guangyu,Zhou Dan,Ma Shoucun and Liu Wei.Meteorological risk assessment of Qinghai Tibet Railway Water Disaster Based on regression model[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2018,12(1):53-60. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Jing Bao Guangyu Zhou Dan Ma Shoucun and Liu Wei |
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| Institution: | The Meteorological Service Center of Qinghai,The Meteorological Service Center of Qinghai,The Meteorological Service Center of Qinghai,The Meteorological Service Center of Qinghai,The Meteorological Service Center of Qinghai |
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| Abstract: | Based on Qinghai-Tibet railway from Minhe to Tuotuo River, based on the data of water damage along the railway line provided by Qinghai-Tibet Railway Company, selects the precipitation data of 14 meteorological stations and 28 weather stations in Qinghai Province from 2000 to 2014 along Qinghai-Tibet railway, study on key technology of meteorological risk assessment of water damage caused by precipitation, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) The trend of railway water damage along the Qinghai-Tibet railway is in the rising stage of oscillation, the monthly distribution pattern of railway water damage is single-peak, and the main water-damage distribution of the railway is mainly single-peak, and the main water-damage risk is mainly concentrated in July to August, which is consistent with the seasonal variation of precipitation in Qinghai Province. (2) The main types of precipitation that caused water damage along the Qinghai-Tibet railway are regional heavy rain and continuous rain. Heavy rain, heavy rain and heavy rain are the main types of rainfall that cause railway water damage. (3) After selecting the corresponding influencing coefficient of precipitation from 1 to 5 days, the index of water damage induced by water disaster, the effective index of water damage, and the degree of occurrence of water damage were calculated. Factor, and the critical value of the water disaster disaster are all well represented. (4) Using the logistic regression model to analyze the Qinghai-Tibet railway in Qinghai Province, the forecast model of the total regional segmentation the rate of prediction is above 86.2%, and the accuracy of stepwise regression model is 88.9%. It can be seen that the logistic regression model and the stepwise regression evaluation model have high accuracy in predicting and evaluating the Qinghai-Tibet railway railway water pollution in China, and the practical value and guiding significance are high. |
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| Keywords: | Qinghai-Tibet railway railway water damage risk assessment model |
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