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| 地震预测的信度方法 | |
| 引用本文： | 石雅镠,张晓东,金声震,周民都.地震预测的信度方法[J].中国地震,2005,21(4):457-462. |
| 作者姓名： | 石雅镠 张晓东 金声震 周民都 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院国家天文台空间技术实验室,北京朝阳区大屯路甲20号,100012 2. 中国地震台网中心,北京,100036 3. 中国地震局地震预测研究所兰州基地,兰州,730000 |
| 基金项目： | 本文受地震科学联合基金资助,课题批准编号为1033. |
| 摘 要： | 概率论与数理统计一直是地震预测中处理不确定性的主要方法，但这一方法也有其局限性。为此我们引进了一种新的不确定性处理方法——证据理论的信度方法。此前，该方法在地震预测中的应用还未见报道。本文首先介绍了信任函数及其在地震预测中的应用方法，包括问题表达和信息综合两个方面，并提出了加权的D—S规则。然后简单讨论了联合信任函数的定义和计算公式，并通过与概率方法的比较，说明了这一方法在地震预测中的应用价值。研究结果表明，利用信度方法处理地震预测中的不确定性问题有其独特的优点。 |
| 关 键 词： | 信度 地震预测 加权D—S规则 联合信度 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4683（2005）04-457-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-05-27 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-05-272005-10-10 |
Methodology of Belief Measure Applying to Earthquake Prediction |
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| Shi Yaliu,Zhang Xiaodong,Jin Shengzhen,Zhou Mingdou.Methodology of Belief Measure Applying to Earthquake Prediction[J].Earthquake Research in China,2005,21(4):457-462. | |
| Authors: | Shi Yaliu Zhang Xiaodong Jin Shengzhen Zhou Mingdou |
| Institution: | 1 National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, China; 2 China Earthquake Networks Center of CEA, Beijing 100081,China; 3 Lanzhou Base of Institute of Earthquake Prediction of CEA, Lazhou 730000, China |
| Abstract: | For handling information uncertainty in earthquake prediction,possbility theory and statistics is of primary method up to now.But it doesn't hold effectiveness in all cases.For this reason,the evidence theory is introduced.In the first part,we give intriduction to the belief function and its application in earthquake prediction,including problem representation as well as information fusion.And the weighted D-S is proposed in accordance with the event synthesizing prediction requirements.Then,in the second part,the association belief measure is discussed and its effciveness is showed.It is concluded that the methods introduced are reasonable and meaningful. |
| Keywords: | Belief measure Earthquake prediction Weighted D-S rule Association belief measure |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |