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CST-based first order second moment method for probabilistic slope stability analysis |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Building Structures and Geotechnical Engineering, University of Seville, Spain;2. TGT-NT2 Labs, Chile;3. Department of Geodynamics, University of Granada, Spain;4. Department of Computer Science. Pablo de Olavide University of Seville, Spain;1. North Carolina State University, Campus Box 7908, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States;2. Infrastructure and Geophysical Division, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC, United States;1. School of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China;1. Division of Materials, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing, China;2. Shougang Institute of Technology, Beijing, China |
| Abstract: | Correlated random variables are commonly involved in probabilistic slope stability analysis, such as reliability analysis of slopes with spatially variable soil properties. This paper proposes a simple Correlated Sampling Technique (CST) for generating samples of correlated random variables. The CST firstly produces correlated standard-normally distributed samples through linear combinations of independent standard-normally distributed samples. Correlated arbitrarily distributed samples can then be obtained by the Nataf transformation. The CST was combined with FOSM (named CST-based FOSM) for probabilistic slope stability analysis. The slope reliabilities of a single-layered cohesive soil slope and a high earth and rockfill dam were analyzed to illustrate the CST-based FOSM. These illustrative examples indicated that the CST-based FOSM can accurately estimate the slope reliability indices with considerably fewer simulations (especially in the case of low failure probability) compared with direct MCS, and the slope reliability was sensitive to the correlation of the strength parameters. |
| Keywords: | Slope stability Earth and rockfill dams Sampling technique First order second moment method Correlated random variables Spatial variability |
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