| 不同物候模型对作物发育期模拟的对比分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李荣平,周广胜,王笑影,史奎桥.不同物候模型对作物发育期模拟的对比分析[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(3):25-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李荣平 周广胜 王笑影 史奎桥 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所，辽宁 沈阳 110016; 2. 中国科学院国家植被与环境变化重点实验室，北京 100093; 3. 中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081; 4.锦州市生态与农业气象中心，辽宁 锦州 121000 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业项目，国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划) |
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| 摘 要： | 作物发育期预报在农业气象业务中具有重要意义。通过比较4种作物发育期模型的模拟效果，为中国东北地区作物发育期预报提供参考。基于东北地区玉米、水稻和大豆的发育期观测数据及其对应的气象资料，利用模拟退火算法估算了4个发育期模型的参数值，并对模型进行内外部验证。结果表明：在参数本地化过程中，高亮之模型和沈国权模型的效果较好，均方根误差平均分别为3.31d和3.72d。在模型验证过程中，沈国权模型的模拟效果较好，均方根误差平均为5.22d，因此，相对而言，沈国权模型对作物发育期模拟效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 水稻 玉米 大豆 模拟退火 发育期 模型 |
Comparative analysis of simulation on crop development stage using different phenological models in Northeast China |
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| LI Rong-ping,ZHOU Guang-sheng,WANG Xiao-ying,SHI Kui-qiao.Comparative analysis of simulation on crop development stage using different phenological models in Northeast China[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2012,28(3):25-30. |
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| Authors: | LI Rong-ping ZHOU Guang-sheng WANG Xiao-ying SHI Kui-qiao |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110016, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China; 3. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 4. Jinzhou Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Jinzhou 121000, China |
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| Abstract: | The prediction of crop development stage plays a critical role in agrometeorological service.The simulation results of four crop development models were compared,which can provide significant suggestions for crop development prediction in Northeast China.Based on the meteorological data and the observational data of development stages for maize,rice and soybean,parameters of four models were calculated and validated by both internal and external data using a simulated annealing method.The results show that in the course of parameter localization,the simulating effects of Gao′s Model and Shen′s Model are better,and root mean square errors(RMSE)are 3.31 days and 3.72 days,respectively.In the course of model validation,Shen′s Model has a better simulating effect and average of RMSE is 5.22 days. |
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| Keywords: | Rice Maize Soybean A simulated annealing method Development stage Model |
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