| 大气环流因子对北半球气温变化影响的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 龚道溢,王绍武.大气环流因子对北半球气温变化影响的研究[J].地理研究,1999,18(1):31-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 龚道溢 王绍武 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京大学地球物理系,北京,100871 |
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| 摘 要： | 首先分析了北大西洋涛动(NAO)、北太平洋涛动(NPO)和南方涛动(SO)对北半球气温影响的空间分布特征。冬季大气涛动对温度方差贡献主要是在低纬和中高纬大陆地区及北太平洋部分区域,40°N以北大部分陆地总的贡献率达30%以上,热带3/4地区也在30%以上。近百年气温和大气涛动关系表明,三个涛动对北半球冬季、夏季和年平均气温的变化贡献分别达31.8%、2.6%和12.8%,也是以冬季影响最大。用大气涛动可以解释近20多年来气温上升的很大一部分方差,这说明可能在原有气温上升的趋势上,由于叠加了近期大气环流引起的气温变化,所以才形成了70年代末以来的加速变暖现象。
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| 关 键 词： | 大气环流 气温 北半球 |
| 收稿时间： | 1998-02-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998-02-16 |
Influence of atmospheric oscillations on northern hemispheric temperature |
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| GONG Dao-yi,WANG Shao-wu.Influence of atmospheric oscillations on northern hemispheric temperature[J].Geographical Research,1999,18(1):31-38. |
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| Authors: | GONG Dao-yi WANG Shao-wu |
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| Institution: | Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China |
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| Abstract: | Global warming has become a major scientific and political issue during the past 2 decades. Evidences show that the change of surface temperature is not uniform. The temperature is increased dramatically over northern continents in middle and high latitudes, but dropped obviously in northern Atlantic and northern Pacific. So the variation of temperature demonstrate some inherent structure. Atmospheric circulation is the most dominant factor controlling the surface climate changes.Atmospheric oscillations play an important role in the general atmospheric circulation, and affect regional or planetary scale climatic anomaly. Variance contribution of three atmospheric oscillations, say NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), NPO (North Pacific Oscillation) and SO(Southern Oscillation), to north hemispheric temperature is investigated. Multivariate linear regression analysis show that the contribution is much higher in the tropic region, middle and high latitude continent and north western Pacific. Three atmospheric oscillations account for above 30% temperature variance over continent of north 40°N, and most part of the tropic in winter.During the past century, the contribution of atmospheric oscillations to northern hemispheric surface air temperature is also significant. From 1873 to 1993, temperature variance of the north hemisphere explained by the atmospheric oscillations is about 31-8%, 2-6% and 12-8% for winter, summer and annual respectively. During the last 2 decades the NAO index is increasing impressing, and the El Nino events occur with a much high frequency.Most part of the warming trend after the mid-1970s may be related to the decadal changes of NAO, NPO and SO. |
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| Keywords: | atmospheric oscillations temperature northern hemisphere |
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