Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks |
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| Authors: | Mikael H??k Junchen Li Kersti Johansson Simon Snowden |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University, L?gerhyddsv?gen 1, P.O. Box 535, 75121 Uppsala, Sweden;(2) School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum—Beijing, 18 Fuxue Road, Changping, Beijing, China;(3) Management School, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK |
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| Abstract: | The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This
study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical
and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems’ growth. The most extreme growth
rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is
established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for
future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that
even if new energy systems undergo a rapid ‘oil boom’-development—i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events—their
contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal. |
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