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Comparison Between LURR and State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakes in Southern California Since 1980 |
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| Authors: | Yongxian Zhang Yongjia Wu Xiangchu Yin Keyin Peng Langping Zhang Aiqin Yu Xiaotao Zhang |
| Institution: | 1. China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, 100045, China 2. LNM, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100080, China 3. Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100036, China 4. China Earthquake Disaster Prevention Center, Beijing, 100029, China |
| Abstract: | There are seven strong earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 that occurred in southern California during the period from 1980 to 2005. In this paper, these earthquakes were studied by the LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) method and the State Vector method to detect if there are anomalies before them. The results show that LURR anomalies appeared before 6 earthquakes out of 7 and State Vector anomalies appeared before all 7 earthquakes. For the LURR method, the interval between maximum LURR value and the forthcoming earthquake is 1 to 19 months, and the dominant mean interval is about 10.7 months. For the State Vector method, the interval between the maximum modulus of increment State Vector and the forthcoming earthquake is from 3 to 27 months, but the dominant mean interval between the occurrence time of the maximum State Vector anomaly and the forthcoming earthquake is about 4.7 months. The results also show that the minimum valid space window scale for the LURR and the State Vector is a circle with a radius of 100 km and a square of 3°×3°, respectively. These results imply that the State Vector method is more effective for short-term earthquake prediction than the LURR method, however the LURR method is more effective for location prediction than the State Vector method. |
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