| 柴达木盆地时序量预测与多因子建模 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘春娥,鞠杰松,王占昌.柴达木盆地时序量预测与多因子建模[J].高原地震,2006,18(2):33-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘春娥 鞠杰松 王占昌 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 青海省地质调查院,青海,西宁,810012
2. 青海省西宁市测绘院,青海,西宁,810001 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地质调查局区域地质调查项目
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中国地质科学院科研基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 以新一轮国土资源大调查“柴达木盆地地下水资源及其环境问题调查评价”项目为依托,围绕时序预测建模软件(Time Series Forecast V1.0)的研发与应用,按照现代预测学理论对柴达木盆地的水文、气象等多因子时序量进行了百年预测。针对多因子综合评价模型提出并采用了先进可行的“主成分”分析法,建立了“特征向量”与“综合指标”的对等关系,从而避免了以往诸多评价模型中人为因素的干扰,提高了预测结果的可信度。
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| 关 键 词： | 时序量 主成分分析 预测建模 柴达木盆地 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-586X(2006)02-0033-09 |
| 收稿时间： | 05 15 2006 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年5月15日 |
TIME SERIES FORECAST AND FACTORS MODELING IN CHAIDAMU BASIN |
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| LIU Chun-e,JU Jie-song,WANG Zhan-chang.TIME SERIES FORECAST AND FACTORS MODELING IN CHAIDAMU BASIN[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,2006,18(2):33-41. |
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| Authors: | LIU Chun-e JU Jie-song WANG Zhan-chang |
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| Institution: | Qinghai Geological Survey Institute, Xining 810012, China |
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| Abstract: | Depending on the Land Resource Survey project "Ground Water Resources and Environment Problems Surveying and Evaluation in Chaidamu Basin",focus on the development and application of Time Series forecast V1.0,according to modern predict theory,it is forcasted the future 100 years of time series factors,such as hydrology and meteorological factors,in the Basin.Pointing at many factors evaluate model,it is put forward and adopted an advanced method of Principal Component Analysis;and established the reciprocity relationship between "Eigenvectors" and"Comprehensive index".Thus,the evaluate model can be avoided interference factor by men,anhanced the confidence of forecasting result. |
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| Keywords: | Time series Principal component analysis Forecast modeling Chaidamu basin |
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