| 渭干河流域生态水文时间序列特征及影响因素 |
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| 引用本文： | 李瑞,张飞,高宇潇,周梅,李晓航,王东芳.渭干河流域生态水文时间序列特征及影响因素[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(6):1713-1720. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李瑞 张飞 高宇潇 周梅 李晓航 王东芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆大学 资源与环境科学学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046;2. 新疆大学 绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046;3. 新疆大学 智慧城市与环境建模普通高校重点实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046 |
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| 基金项目： | 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目（2012211B04） |
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| 摘 要： | 以渭干河流域水系中的库车河兰干站、渭干河黑孜水库站、渭干河千佛洞（合成）水库站为例，对R/S和Mann-Kendall法用于水文时间序列存在的不足进行了讨论，提出了将这两种方法相结合来分析水文时间序列的变化趋势。结果表明：库车河兰干站、渭干河黑孜水库站、渭干河千佛洞（合成）水库站赫斯特指数0 < H < 0.5、统计量UFk>0，未来径流量呈显著下降趋势，渭-库绿洲的自然和人为因素对该地区的生态水文产生一定影响。
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| 关 键 词： | R/S法 Mann-Kendall法 水文时间序列 趋势特征 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-03-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-06-21 |
Future Trend Characteristics of Hydrological Time Series in the Weiganhhe River Basin |
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| Li Rui,Zhang Fei,Gao Yuxiao,Zhou Mei,Li Xiaohang,Wang Dongfang.Future Trend Characteristics of Hydrological Time Series in the Weiganhhe River Basin[J].Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(6):1713-1720. |
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| Authors: | Li Rui Zhang Fei Gao Yuxiao Zhou Mei Li Xiaohang Wang Dongfang |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology under Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;3. General Institutes of Higher Learning Key Laboratory of Smart City and Environmental Modeling, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China |
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| Abstract: | Every river system has its own unique flow variation. In this paper, we discussed the problem of the R/S and Mann-Kendall method used in hydrological time series, and presented a method of the combination of R/S and Mann-Kendall to analyze future trend characteristics of hydrological time series, taking the Langan Reservoir Station, Heizi Reservoir Station, Thousand Buddha Cave (synthetic) Reservoir Station as examples. The results show that:the Hearst index for the three stations were all less than 0.5, UFk were all more than 0, indicating a significant decline flow in future. |
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| Keywords: | R/S method Mann-Kendall method hydrological time series trend characteristics |
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