| 石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知及其影响因素 |
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| 引用本文： | 雒丽,赵雪雁,王亚茹,张钦.石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知及其影响因素[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(4):1171-1181. |
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| 作者姓名： | 雒丽 赵雪雁 王亚茹 张钦 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北师范大学 地理与环境科学学院, 甘肃 兰州 730070 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41361106）；教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目（NCET-11-0910）；甘肃省高校基本科研业务费项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 农户对气候变化的感知是影响其选择有效适应策略的关键因素。基于农户调查数据，构建了农户对气候变化的感知度指数，分析了石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知特征，并采用多元线性回归法分析了影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素。结果表明：（1）石羊河流域农户对气温的感知比较准确，但对降水的感知出现偏差，农户对干旱、沙尘暴的感知强度明显高于其他气象灾害；（2）农户对气候变化的严重性感知较强，大部分农户认为气候变化对其生计产生了严重影响；（3）农户感知到的气候变化适应功效及适应成本均较高，但感知到的自我效能较弱；（4）影响气候变化敏感性感知的关键因素为户主受教育水平、务农年限、气候变化信息获取渠道；影响气候变化严重性感知与适应成本感知的关键因素均为户主性别、受教育水平及与村民的交流频率；影响适应功效感知的关键因素为与村民的交流频率；影响自我效能感知的关键因素为户主受教育水平。
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| 关 键 词： | 石羊河流域 农户 气候变化 感知 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-03-31 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-04-28 |
Farmers' Perception and Its Influence Factors of Climate Change in the Shiyang River Basin |
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| Luo Li,Zhao Xueyan,Wang Yaru,Zhang Qin.Farmers' Perception and Its Influence Factors of Climate Change in the Shiyang River Basin[J].Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(4):1171-1181. |
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| Authors: | Luo Li Zhao Xueyan Wang Yaru Zhang Qin |
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| Institution: | College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China |
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| Abstract: | Farmers' perception of climate change is a critical factor affecting the choice of adaptation measures. Based on 491 household survey data and farmers' perceptions indices of climate change, this paper analyzes the characteristics of farmers' perceptions of climate change in the Shiyang River Basin. Perceptions of climate change include risk perception and adaptive perception. The risk perception include sensitivity perception and severity perception, and the adaptive perception include adaptation efficacy perception, self-efficiency perception and adaptation costs perception. Using multiple linear regression method to analysis the key factors influencing farmers' perception of climate change. The results show: (1) Farmers' risk perception of climate change in the Shiyang River Basin is strong. Most farmers perceived the temperature increase, this situation is consistent with the trends of climate change in 1963-2012 in the Shiyang River Basin. And most farmers perceived the precipitation reduction, this situation does not comply with the trends of climate change in 1963-2012 in the Shiyang River Basin. Most farmers perceived drought and dust storms increase, and farmers' perception of increased drought is the strongest, followed by the perception of increased dust storms. In comparison, the perception of temperature increase and reduced precipitation of upstream farmers is stronger than the perception of middle and lower reaches, but the perception of increased drought and dust storms of the middle and lower reaches farmers is stronger than the perception of upstream farmers. In addition, most farmers already perceived the seriousness of climate change and its impacts in the Shiyang River Basin. (2) Farmers' adaptive perception of climate change in the Shiyang River Basin is relatively weak. In comparison, the adaptation efficacy perception and costs perception to climate change of the middle and lower reaches farmers is stronger than the perception of upstream famers, but the self-efficiency perception to climate change of the middle and lower reaches farmers is weaker than the perception of upstream farmers. The upstream and the middle-lower reaches farmers have taken different measures to weaken the influence of climate change on livelihoods. (3) The key factors influencing farmers' sensitivity perception are farmer's education level, farming life and channels of access to climate change information. The key factors influencing farmers' severity perception and adaptation costs perception are farmer's gender, education level and the frequency of communication with villagers. The key factor influencing farmers' adaptation efficacy perception is the frequency of communication with villagers. The key factor influencing farmers' self-efficiency perception is farmer's education level. |
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| Keywords: | Shiyang River Basin farmer climate change perception |
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