|
|||||
|
|
A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture |
|
| Authors: | Detlef P van Vuuren Elmar Kriegler Brian C O’Neill Kristie L Ebi Keywan Riahi Timothy R Carter Jae Edmonds Stephane Hallegatte Tom Kram Ritu Mathur Harald Winkler |
| Institution: | 1. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO BOX 303, 3720 AH, Bilthoven, The Netherlands 2. Department of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands 3. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany 4. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA 5. ClimAdapt, LLC, Los Altos, CA, USA 6. International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Vienna, Austria 7. Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Climate Change Programme, Box 140, 00251, Helsinki, Finland 8. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, USA 9. The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA 10. The Energy and Resources Institute - TERI, New Delhi, India 11. University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Republic of South Africa |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue. |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ | |