Predictability of the spring rainfall in Northwestern Iberian Peninsula from sea surfaces temperature of ENSO areas |
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| Authors: | M Nieves Lorenzo J J Taboada I Iglesias M Gómez-Gesteira |
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| Institution: | 1. Faculty of Sciences, Campus de Ourense, University of Vigo, 32004, Ourense, Spain
2. Meteogalicia – Xunta de Galicia, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
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| Abstract: | The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) of the ocean on seasonal rainfall in Northwestern Iberian Peninsula is studied for the period 1951–2006. Seasonal correlations were calculated for all seasons and different lags applied on SST. A test for field-significance considering the properties of finiteness and interdependence of the spatial grid was applied to avoid correlations by chance. The most significant and repetitive correlation is found between SST over Equatorial Pacific and spring rainfall. The correlation is maintained for different lags, and the common area that satisfies the criteria for statistical field significance is coincident with ENSO area. A forecast scheme is developed to predict spring rainfall anomalies based in SST over ENSO area in precedent seasons. An analysis of principal components was also carried out to obtain the main modes of the Pacific Ocean and their influence on spring rainfall in NWIP. This study concludes that for the period 1951–2006 the negative phase of ENSO, “La Niña”, almost always announces dry springs in NW Iberian Peninsula. However, the positive phase of ENSO, “El Niño”, does not anticipate the appearance of wet springs. |
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