| 我国铜产业生命周期增长趋势与需求预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 马,骋.我国铜产业生命周期增长趋势与需求预测[J].地质与勘探,2012,48(4):852-857. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 马 骋 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京,100037
2. 中色地科矿产勘查股份有限公司,北京,100012 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家科技部科技支撑计划项目“东川-易门铜矿山深部及外围勘查技术及示范冶(2006BAB01B09)和国家科技部2011 年科研
院所技术开发研究专项资金项目“铁氧化物铜金型矿床元素赋存状态及岩相构造学填图技术研发冶(2011EG115022)资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 摘 要] 随着中国经济的高速发展,国内铜需求持续增加,带动了我国铜产业的不断扩张。本文的
研究基于产业生命周期的理论,利用现有发达国家有色金属产业的生命周期特点的实证支持,采用先期
发达工业化国家成熟且较完整的产业生命周期的经验数据,结合我国实际情况,运用生长曲线模型来剖
析我国铜产业生命周期的发展趋势,预测我国铜产业在2015 年前后增长的极限,届时我国铜需求为800
万t 左右,人均需求量为6～7kg。
|
| 关 键 词： | 铜 产业 生命周期 生长曲线 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/4/14 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2/6/2012 12:00:00 AM |
The Lifecycle Growth Trend and Demand Prediction of the Copper Industry in China |
| |
| MA Cheng.The Lifecycle Growth Trend and Demand Prediction of the Copper Industry in China[J].Geology and Prospecting,2012,48(4):852-857. |
| |
| Authors: | MA Cheng |
| |
| Institution: | China Geological Survey Development Research Center,Beijing |
| |
| Abstract: | Abstract:With China's rapid economic development,the domestic copper demand continues to increase,which drives the continuous expansion of China's copper industry. Based on the theory of industrial life cycles and existing empirical support of industry life cycles of non-ferrous metals in developed countries,considering the actual situations in our country,this paper uses the growth curve model to analyze the trend of life cycles of the copper industry. The result shows that copper consumption and production have large growth space,and will enter a limitation stage in 2015. The copper demand will be around 8 million tons and per capita requirement will be 6 to 7 kg by that time. |
| |
| Keywords: | copper industry life cycle growth curve |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《地质与勘探》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《地质与勘探》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
