| 中国东部冬季气温异常与海表温度异常的关系分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈少勇,张燕霞,夏权,白登元,张晓芬.中国东部冬季气温异常与海表温度异常的关系分析[J].高原气象,2009,28(5):1181-1188. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈少勇 张燕霞 夏权 白登元 张晓芬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局,兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃,兰州,730020;白银市气象局,甘肃,白银,730900
2. 白银市气象局,甘肃,白银,730900 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用SVD、 相关分析及EOF方法， 分析了中国东部冬季地面气温与北大西洋及北太平洋海温异常变化的关系。结果表明： （1）中国东部冬季气温变化的一致性较高； （2）冬季气温异常与前一年9月北大西洋海域关键区（16°～40°N， 60°～24°W）海温和当年2月西北太平洋关键区（20°～40°N， 124°E～180°）海温呈显著的正相关分布， 即前一年9月北大西洋和当年2月西北太平洋海温异常偏高（低）， 东部冬季气温亦偏高（低）, 即前一年9月北大西洋海温的异常是否为我国冬季气温的气候预测提供了一种前期信号； （3）关键区海温对中国东部冬季气温的影响存在区域差异。北大西洋前期海温与中国东部冬季气温有密切的关系， 而西北太平洋的海温主要影响长江流域及其以北的季风中部区; （4）海温影响气温的可能机理是西北太平洋海温异常升高， 使乌山脊减弱， 阿拉斯加脊减弱， 东亚大槽减弱向东移动， 纬向环流加强， 高纬度的冷空气不易南下， 导致我国东部大部分地区冬季气温偏暖， 反之亦然。在年代际尺度上， 纬向环流和东亚大槽对海温有显著的响应; 但在年际变化方面， 东亚大槽对海温的响应不显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 冬季 气温异常 EOF 海温异常 SVD分析 |
Analysis of Relationship between Winter Air Temperature in Eastern China and Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly |
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| CHEN Shao-yong,ZHANG Yan-xia,XIA Quan,BAI Deng-yuan,ZHANG Xiao-fen.Analysis of Relationship between Winter Air Temperature in Eastern China and Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly[J].Plateau Meteorology,2009,28(5):1181-1188. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Shao-yong ZHANG Yan-xia XIA Quan BAI Deng-yuan ZHANG Xiao-fen |
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| Abstract: | Using the SVD, correlation analysis and EOF method, the relationship between the winter air temperature and sea surface temperature anomaly change (SSTA) in eastern China are analyzed. The main results are as follows: (1)Winter temperature of eastern China changes in high uniformity; (2)Winter temperature of eastern China anomaly has obviously isotopic distribution with sea temperate in February of the same year over Northwest Pacific Ocean key area (20°～40°N, 124°E～180°) and in September of the last year over North Atlantic Ocean key area (16°～40°N, 60°～24°W), namely, when the sea temperature in September of the last year over North Atlantic Ocean and in February of the same year over Northwest Pacific Ocean is on the high (low) side, the winter temperature of eastern China also is on the high (low) side. Sea temperature over North Atlantic Ocean in the last year anomaly or not provides the climate forecast of winter temperature with preliminary signal; (3)The sea temperature in key areas affects winter temperature of eastern China differently in various areas. The North Atlantic Ocean′s preliminary sea temperature has close relationship with the winter temperature of eastern China, but Northwest Pacific Ocean′s sea temperature mainly affects Yangtze valley and the middle area of monsoon area.(4) The possible mechanism that sea temperature affects air temperature is Northwest Pacific Ocean sea temperature anomaly rises, making Ural mountains high-pressure ridge and Alaska high-pressure ridge weaken, the East Asian big trough weaken and move to east, latitudinal circulation strengthen, the high latitude cold air go to south difficultly. All these result that winter temperature in most areas of eastern China warmer, otherwise counter-piece. In the decadal change aspects, latitudinal circulation and the East Asian big trough has remarkable response to the sea temperature. But in the interannual change aspects, the East Asian big trough has not remarkable response to the sea temperature. |
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| Keywords: | EOF Winter Temperature unusual EOF SSTA SVD analysis |
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