贵州春季冰雹短期预报的高空温压场相似法 |
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引用本文: | 许炳南,周颖.贵州春季冰雹短期预报的高空温压场相似法[J].高原气象,2003,22(4):426-430. |
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作者姓名: | 许炳南 周颖 |
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作者单位: | 1. 贵州省气象局,贵州,贵阳,550002 2. 贵州省人工影响天气办公室,贵州,贵阳,550002 |
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基金项目: | 贵州省人工防雹技术系统建设工程项目资助 |
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摘 要: | 采用08:00(北京时,下同)500hPa温压场和700hPa温度场相似系数指标值,建立了贵州区域性春季冰雹短期预报模型。建模选用了427个冰雹日个例和484个无雹日个例,分月确定相似预报指标,故所建模型有较大的统计可靠性。预报模型在样本期内的预报准确率为66%,经1999和2001年试报,结果表明,该预报模型有较好的实用价值。
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关 键 词: | 贵州 冰雹短期预报 高空温压场 相似法 预报模型 |
文章编号: | 1000-0534(2003)04-0426-05 |
修稿时间: | 2002年1月24日 |
Analogue Method of Aerological Temperature and Pressure Fields of Spring Hailfall's Short-Range Forecast in Guizhou |
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Abstract: | By using the analogus coefficient critical value of 08:00 500 hPa temperature and pressure field and 700 hPa temperature field, spring regional short\|range weather forecast model of hailfall in Guizhou is established, the prediction model is established with 427 hailfall days and 484 non\|hailfall days, it is determined monthly analogus prediction index, consequently they have very largely statistical reliability. Prediction model acuracy for sample period is 66%. The forecasting results in 1999 and 2001 indicate that this method is efficient. |
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Keywords: | Hailfall's short-range forecast Temperature and pressure fields Analogue method |
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