Improving conveyance of uncertainties in the findings of the IPCC |
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| Authors: | Rachael Jonassen Jr" target="_blank">Roger PielkeJr |
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| Institution: | (1) LMI, McLean, VA 22101, USA;(2) Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309, USA |
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| Abstract: | Authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) received guidance on reporting
understanding, certainty and/or confidence in findings using a common language, to better communicate with decision makers.
However, a review of the IPCC conducted by the InterAcademy Council (2010) found that “the guidance was not consistently followed in AR4, leading to unnecessary errors . . . the guidance was often
applied to statements that are so vague they cannot be falsified. In these cases the impression was often left, quite incorrectly,
that a substantive finding was being presented.” Our comprehensive and quantitative analysis of findings and associated uncertainty
in the AR4 supports the IAC findings and suggests opportunities for improvement in future assessments. |
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