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Evaluation of the risk of induced seismicity at the itzantun hydroelectric site, Chiapas, Mexico |
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| Authors: | A Uribe-carvajal E Nyland |
| Institution: | aInstitute of Earth and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alta. T6G 2J1 Canada |
| Abstract: | Consolidation theory and concepts of rock failure can be used to evaluate the probable risk of induced seismicity as a result of filling of reservoirs. This evaluation indicates the safest way to fill a reservoir, and depends only on the geometry of the load, the rate of filling and the geological structures in the area. The stability function is actually a measure of the risk of having failure, with time, for a particular loading history in respect to a plane of weakness. The stability function is applied to the area of the Itzantun reservoir, which will be in southern Mexico. Drawdowns can increase the risk of triggering earthquakes in this area, which is prone to thrust faulting. It is possible to estimate the stresses after a period during which the water level is maintained and a decrease in stresses with the depth of the observation point. The estimates of the probable induced seismicity are limited as the residual stress in the area prior to the impounding is unknown. With a measure of the residual tectonic stress it will be possible to determine an optimal filling rate to reduce the probability of induced seismicity. |
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