Changes in climate extremes on the territory of Siberia by the middle of the 21st century: An ensemble forecast based on the MGO regional climate model |
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| Authors: | I M Shkol’nik V P Meleshko S V Efimov E N Stafeeva |
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| Institution: | 1.Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory,St. Petersburg,Russia |
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| Abstract: | The results are analyzed of the ensemble forecast of temperature and precipitation extremes on the territory of Siberia by
the middle of the 21st century based on the regional climate model of the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) with the resolution
of 25 km. The results of computation of oceanic components of CMIP3 coupled models are used as the boundary conditions on
the sea surface. It is demonstrated that the high resolution of the regional model enables to simulate the observed climate
variability in a more realistic way as compared to the low-resolution models. The analysis of the signal-to-noise ratio for
future climate changes made it possible to determine to which degree its internal variability for various time scales (from
interannual to interdecennial one) bounds the potential of the ensemble to compute the statistically significant anthropogenic
changes of extremes. A comparative analysis of variations of extreme and average seasonal characteristics of the Siberian
climate is carried out. |
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