| BCC_CSM1.1模式对我国气温的模拟和预估 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 周鑫,李清泉,孙秀博,魏敏.BCC_CSM1.1模式对我国气温的模拟和预估[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(1):95-106. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 周鑫 李清泉 孙秀博 魏敏 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京 210044 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 资助项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB955203)，国家高技术研究发展计划(2010AA012404, 2010AA012403)，公益性行业（气象）科研专项(GYHY201106022)，国家自然科学基金项目(41175065) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用我国541个测站1960—2010年气温资料以及国家气候中心参加第5次耦合模式比较计划 (CMIP5) 的气候系统模式BCC_CSM1.1的历史试验和年代际试验结果，评估了该模式对我国近50年气温变化特征的模拟能力, 对模式的年代际试验结果进行了误差订正，并给出未来10~20年我国气温变化的预估。结果表明:历史试验和年代际试验均模拟出了与观测较为一致的增暖趋势，但均没有观测资料的增暖幅度大。其中，历史试验比年代际试验更接近于观测。年代际尺度上，模式对我国东部的模拟要好于西部；年际尺度上，模式的高预报技巧区在我国西北地区西南部和东部、西南地区北部。历史试验和年代际试验对我国气温空间场整体分布模拟较好，误差订正后的年代际试验结果对空间气温场的模拟有更好把握。相对于观测资料得到的1960—2010年0.27℃/10 a的增温速率，模式预估我国2011—2030年平均气温变化速率达到0.48℃/10 a, 上升趋势更加明显。
|
| 关 键 词： | CMIP5 BCC_CSM1.1 气温 误差订正 预估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-03-21 |
Simulation and Projection of Temperature in China with BCC_CSM1.1 Model |
| |
| Zhou Xin,Li Qingquan,Sun Xiubo and Wei Min.Simulation and Projection of Temperature in China with BCC_CSM1.1 Model[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2014,25(1):95-106. |
| |
| Authors: | Zhou Xin Li Qingquan Sun Xiubo and Wei Min |
| |
| Institution: | 1.College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 2100442.Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing 1000813.National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing 100081 |
| |
| Abstract: | Inter-annual and inter-decadal variability are two kinds of different timescale variability existing at the same time in climate system found in previous studies. Affected by the global warming, the inter-decadal signal of climate change becomes more and more significant. The next 10 to 30 years of climate change, namely inter-decadal time scales climate change and their impacts on the global environment, society and economic development, draw more and more attention. Climate change features of inter-decadal scale become one of the most important content of the IPCC AR5. The 10 to 30 years' timescale of inter-decadal forecast experiment which is listed as one of the main experiment content has joined the 5th Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). More in-depth research will be carried out on predictability of inter-decadal timescale.The air temperature data of 541 stations in China from 1960 to 2010 as well as the CMIP5 historical and decadal experiment results of Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1) are utilized to evaluate the simulation ability of the model. The model results are interpolated to the corresponding latitude and longitude of 541 stations use bilinear interpolation method. Whether the pattern of regional prediction ability could improve by the decadal experiment of BCC_CSM1.1 which initialed the SST (sea surface temperature) is discussed. Bias corrections to the decadal experiment results are done and the preliminary projection of the changes of the air temperature of China for the next 10—20 years is presented. Results show that both historical and decadal experiments can capture the warming trend in accordance with the observations, but the warming tendency of the experiments are less significant than those of observations. Results of historical experiments are slightly better than those of decadal experiments of the model. On the inter-decadal timescales, simulations in the eastern part of China are better than those in the western part of China. On the inter-annual timescales, the high prediction skills are located in the southwestern and eastern parts of northwest region, and southwest of China. Distributions of temperature in China are well simulated in both of historical and decadal experiments, such as the spatial correlation coefficients of 0.9 or above. After bias correction, results of decadal experiments are much better. By the corrected result of decadal experiments, the result of temperature spatial distribution simulation is better. The model projects that the rising rate of the mean temperature of China will be 0.48℃/10 a during 2011—2030, which is more significant than the warming rate of 0.27℃/10 a during 1960—2010 on the basis of observations. And the forecast results of the model show that the air temperature of China during 2001—2010 grows more slowly and fluctuate less compared with the period of 2011—2030. |
| |
| Keywords: | CMIP5 BCC_CSM1 1 air temperature bias correction projection |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
