| How the “Best” Models Project the Future Precipitation Change in China |
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| 引用本文： | 陈活泼,孙建奇.How the “Best” Models Project the Future Precipitation Change in China[J].大气科学进展,2009,26(4):773-782. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈活泼 孙建奇 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所, |
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| 基金项目： | The National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)，State Key Project and National Natural Science Foundation of China |
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| 摘 要： | Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three “best” models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected summer precipitation in China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%–20.4%
at the end of the 21st century. The region of the Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%–3.6% at the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the A2 scenario.
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| 关 键 词： | projection summer precipitation “best” models ensemble |
How the “best” models project the future precipitation change in China |
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| Huopo?Chen,Jianqi?Sun.How the “best” models project the future precipitation change in China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2009,26(4):773-782. |
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| Authors: | Huopo Chen Jianqi Sun |
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| Institution: | 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, 2 Climate Change Research Center (CCRC), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, 3 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, 2 Climate Change Research Center (CCRC), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
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| Abstract: | Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly
precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three “best” models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2,
and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation
in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios
experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected
summer precipitation in China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation
in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century,
the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation
intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%–20.4% at the end of the 21st century. The region of the
Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%–3.6% at
the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches
of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts
of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the
A2 scenario. |
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| Keywords: | projection summer precipitation “ best” models ensemble |
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