The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise |
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| Authors: | Johannes Becherer Jacobus Hofstede Ulf Gräwe Kaveh Purkiani Elisabeth Schulz Hans Burchard |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences (CEOAS),Oregon State University,Corvallis,USA;2.Division Flood Defense, Coastal Protection and Harbors,Schleswig-Holstein Ministry for Energy Transition, Agriculture, Environment, Nature and Digitalization,Kiel,Germany;3.Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW),Rostock,Germany;4.Center for Marine Environmental Sciences,MARUM,Bremen,Germany |
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| Abstract: | The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010–2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level. |
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