Impact of climate change on the hydrology and water salinity in the Anzali Wetland,northern Iran |
| |
| Authors: | Mostafa Naderi Masoud Saatsaz |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Earth Sciences (Hydrogeology), Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Zanjan, Iran;2. Research Center for Basic Sciences and Modern Technologies (RBST), Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Zanjan, Iranm.naderi@iasbs.ac.ir naderi64@gmail.com;4. Department of Earth Sciences (Environmental Hydrogeology and Hydrogeology), Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Zanjan, Iran |
| |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACTThe impact of climate change on hydrology and water salinity of a valuable coastal wetland (Anzali) in northern Iran is assessed using daily precipitation and temperature data from 19 models of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The daily data are transiently downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator to three climatic stations. The temperature is projected to increase by +1.6, +1.9 and +2.7°C and precipitation to decrease by 10.4%, 12.8% and 12.2% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The wetland hydrology and water salinity are assessed using the water balance approach and mixing equation, respectively. The upstream river flow modelled by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool is projected to reduce by up to 18%, leading to reductions in wetland volume (154 × 106 m3), area (57.47 km2) and depth (2.77 m) by 34%, 21.1% and 20.2%, respectively, under climate change, while the mean annual total dissolved solids (1675 mg/L) would increase by 49%. The reduced volume and raised salinity may affect the wetland ecology. |
| |
| Keywords: | climate change transient downscaling Anzali Wetland hydrology water salinity |
|
|
