A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe) |
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| Authors: | Milan Stojkovi? Jasna Plav?i? Stevan Prohaska Dragutin Pavlovi? Jovan Despotovi? |
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| Institution: | 1. Department for Hydrology and Applied Informatics, Jaroslav ?erni Institute for the Development of Water Resources, Belgrade, Serbiamstojko@uwo.ca;3. Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia;4. Department for Hydrology and Applied Informatics, Jaroslav ?erni Institute for the Development of Water Resources, Belgrade, Serbia |
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| Abstract: | ABSTRACTClimate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070. |
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| Keywords: | two-stage deterministic-stochastic time series model transfer function models Lim River basin southeast Europe climate change |
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