Projection of runoff characteristics as a response to regional climate change in a Central/Eastern European catchment |
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| Authors: | Anna Kis Rita Pongrácz Judit Bartholy János Adolf Szabó |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Meteorology, E?tv?s Loránd University , Budapest, Hungary;2. Faculty of Science, Excellence Centre, E?tv?s Loránd University , Martonvásár, Hungary kisanna@nimbus.elte.hu https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3227-1230;4. Faculty of Science, Excellence Centre, E?tv?s Loránd University , Martonvásár, Hungary https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7591-7989;5. Faculty of Science, Excellence Centre, E?tv?s Loránd University , Martonvásár, Hungary https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3911-7981;6. HYDROInfrom Ltd ., Budapest, Hungary |
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| Abstract: | ABSTRACT The impact of climate change on runoff characteristics is investigated for the Upper Tisza basin, in eastern Central Europe. For a reliable estimation of uncertainty, an appropriate stochastic weather generator is embedded into a Monte Carlo cycle capable of generating any large number of independent, equally probable, 100-year-long daily sequences of synthetic data with which a hydrological model is driven in order to obtain the hydrological responses to the meteorological data sequences. According to our results, a decrease of daily average runoff is likely to occur in the future in the Upper Tisza basin, especially in July and August. The occurrence of water levels below the critical low level is estimated to increase between July and October. Level-3 flood warnings are projected to be less frequent in the future; however, they will tend to be more severe than in the historical period. |
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| Keywords: | runoff DIWA model climate simulation level-3 flood warning critical low water level Upper Tisza catchment |
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3227-1230;4. Faculty of Science, Excellence Centre, E?tv?s Loránd University , Martonvásár, Hungary