| 焦作市雷暴潜势预报及临近监测预警系统 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘跃红,闫小利,宋自福,李艳红,卢学锋,肖杰,牛广山,张珍.焦作市雷暴潜势预报及临近监测预警系统[J].气象,2007,33(8):104-111. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘跃红 闫小利 宋自福 李艳红 卢学锋 肖杰 牛广山 张珍 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南省焦作市气象局,454003 |
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| 基金项目： | 致谢：本文在写作过程中承蒙李平高工指导,在此深表感谢! |
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| 摘 要： | 在对焦作市雷暴气候特征分析的基础上,利用T213预报场资料,制作焦作市雷暴趋势预报;采取双判据修正K指数,提出焦作市雷暴稳定度界定指标,做雷暴潜势预报。对1984—2004年的历史资料,分别计算出30个物理量场,形成1°×1°格点资料开展雷暴强度等级判别;综合卫星、雷达、闪电定位仪资料,建立雷暴监测预警系统。该系统采用VB语言编程,根据每天08时、20时MICAPS资料自动完成天气分型、物理量计算、预报指标提取和预报方法的判别,输出预警结论,制作雷暴落区预报。在2005—2006年预报工作中取得较为满意的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 趋势预报 潜势预报 稳定度指标 强度等级预报 雷暴路径 临近预警系统 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/1/15 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-15 |
The Potential Prediction of Thunderstorm and Monitoring, Nowcasting and Warning System in Jiaozuo, Henan Province |
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| Liu Yuehong,Yan Xiaoli,Song Zifu,Li Yanhong,Lu Xuefeng,Xiao Jie,Niu Guangshan and Zhang Zhen.The Potential Prediction of Thunderstorm and Monitoring, Nowcasting and Warning System in Jiaozuo, Henan Province[J].Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(8):104-111. |
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| Authors: | Liu Yuehong Yan Xiaoli Song Zifu Li Yanhong Lu Xuefeng Xiao Jie Niu Guangshan and Zhang Zhen |
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| Institution: | Jiaozuo Meteological Office, Henan Province 454003 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the thunderstorm climatic statistical characteristics in Jiao
zuo area, thunderstorm trend prediction was made by means of T213 numerical pred
iction products. The double criterion was adopted to modify the K exponent. The
thunderstorm stability definition index was presented, then the thunderstorm pot
ential prediction was made. According to historical data 1984-2000, thirty physi
cal fields were calculated, 1°×1°grid data was formed and thunderstorm intens
ity grades discrimination method was developed. Combined with the data of satel
lite, radar, and lightning locator, thunderstorm monitoring and warning system w
as established .The system is realized by visual basic language. Classified weat
her types, calculated physical quantities, extracted forecast index and discrimi
nated forecast method were automatically finished by using the MICAPS data of 8:
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0 and 20:00. Therefore, early warning conclusion and regions of thunderstorm oc
currence were output. The system performed well in routine forecasting during 20
05-2006. |
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| Keywords: | trend prediction potential prediction stability index intensity grades forecast thunderstorm track approaching warning system |
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